Name: ______________________ Date: __________ Merchant number: ______
Read this first. The crisis dispatch is on the screen. Your fortune may be dropping. Before you touch the Sell button, fill in this grid. That is the rule today: a written decision before any trade. Selling, holding, and buying more can all be right. What I am scoring is whether you decided or whether your stomach decided for you.
Step 0: my body and my screen
Stress signs I notice right now (circle any): fast heartbeat / tight stomach / want to act right now / cannot think about anything else / hands shaky / none
Feeling word (English, Turkish, Portuguese, or Spanish): scared, worried, calm, angry, excited / korkmuş, endişeli, sakin, kızgın, heyecanlı / assustado, preocupado, calmo, irritado, animado / asustado, preocupado, tranquilo, enojado, emocionado [check with a native speaker]
My feeling: __________
One step before I decide: stop, breathe once, name what I am choosing. Done? yes / no
My total fortune right now: AQ __________ It was AQ __________ yesterday.
Which of my ventures dropped? ______________________ Which did not move? ______________________
The five-step decision model
Picture cues: a question mark (name the choice), a list (list options), a scale (weigh each against what matters), a check mark (decide), a mirror (look back).
Step 1: Name the choice
The choice I am making is what to do with my ______________________ (the venture or ventures that dropped).
Step 2: List the options
| Option | What it means today |
|---|---|
| SELL | Sell some or all of the venture that dropped and hold the cash (or move it to a safe venture). |
| HOLD | Keep everything I have. Do not trade. Wait. |
| BUY | Buy more of the venture that dropped, at the low price, because I expect it to recover. |
Step 3: Weigh each option against what matters
Fill every box with a number or a short phrase. Use your own holdings.
| What matters | If I SELL | If I HOLD | If I BUY more |
|---|---|---|---|
| If prices keep falling tomorrow, what happens to my fortune? | |||
| If prices recover next week, what happens to my fortune? | |||
| How will I feel about this next week, either way? | |||
| Does this fit the pie I chose on Day 5? | yes / no | yes / no | yes / no |
Step 4: Decide
My decision (circle one): SELL / HOLD / BUY MORE / a mix (say what): ______________________
Units, if selling or buying: ______ units of ______ at about AQ ______
One reason, with a number or a risk level (not a feeling alone):
My trades today (fill in as you make them; if you change your mind from Step 4, write why in the last column):
| Ticker | Buy or sell | Units | Price | Same as Step 4? If not, why? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Step 5: Look back (fill this in tomorrow, Day 7)
My Day 6 decision was (circle one): a plan / a panic
My evidence, a number from the ledger (what I sold or held, at what price, and what it is worth now):
What I would tell a friend who is looking at the same screen right now:
Two real crashes (Day 7 notes; fill in from the slides)
| Crash 1: 2008 | Crash 2: 2020 | |
|---|---|---|
| What caused it | ||
| How far the big stock index fell (about) | ||
| How long until it got back (about) | ||
| What held (the safe assets) | ||
| What happened to people who sold at the bottom and never came back |
Teacher key
There is no right answer for Step 4. Score the grid on whether the reasoning is there:
- Step 3 has a number or a phrase in every box (a "got it" box: "If I sell 200 SPRK at 40.50 I keep 8,100 cash no matter what happens tomorrow").
- Step 4's reason names a number, a risk level, or the Day 5 pie, not only a feeling. "I was scared" is a feeling; "I was scared, and SPRK is 70 percent of my pie, so I sold half to get it under 40 percent" is a reason.
- The trades table matches Step 4, or the change is explained.
- Step 5 names a ledger number and labels the decision honestly.
Two real crashes, sample answers (rounded; [Sal: verify against a current source before presenting]):
- 2008: caused by home loans that could not be paid back and the banks that had made them failing; the S&P 500 index fell about 57 percent from October 2007 to March 2009; it took about four years (to 2013) to get back to its old high; government bonds and savings accounts held; people who sold at the bottom and never came back locked in the loss and missed the recovery.
- 2020: caused by a virus that closed most of the world in a month; the index fell about 34 percent in about five weeks (February 19 to March 23, 2020); it got back in about five months (August 2020); government bonds and savings accounts held; same lesson about selling at the bottom.