# Handout 02.17: Sell, Hold, Buy Decision Grid

Name: ______________________ Date: __________ Merchant number: ______

**Read this first.** The crisis dispatch is on the screen. Your fortune may be dropping. Before you touch the Sell button, fill in this grid. That is the rule today: a written decision before any trade. Selling, holding, and buying more can all be right. What I am scoring is whether you decided or whether your stomach decided for you.

## Step 0: my body and my screen

Stress signs I notice right now (circle any): fast heartbeat / tight stomach / want to act right now / cannot think about anything else / hands shaky / none

Feeling word (English, Turkish, Portuguese, or Spanish): scared, worried, calm, angry, excited / korkmuş, endişeli, sakin, kızgın, heyecanlı / assustado, preocupado, calmo, irritado, animado / asustado, preocupado, tranquilo, enojado, emocionado [check with a native speaker]

My feeling: __________

One step before I decide: stop, breathe once, name what I am choosing. Done? yes / no

My total fortune right now: AQ __________ It was AQ __________ yesterday.

Which of my ventures dropped? ______________________ Which did not move? ______________________

## The five-step decision model

Picture cues: a question mark (name the choice), a list (list options), a scale (weigh each against what matters), a check mark (decide), a mirror (look back).

### Step 1: Name the choice

The choice I am making is what to do with my ______________________ (the venture or ventures that dropped).

### Step 2: List the options

| Option | What it means today |
|---|---|
| SELL | Sell some or all of the venture that dropped and hold the cash (or move it to a safe venture). |
| HOLD | Keep everything I have. Do not trade. Wait. |
| BUY | Buy more of the venture that dropped, at the low price, because I expect it to recover. |

### Step 3: Weigh each option against what matters

Fill every box with a number or a short phrase. Use your own holdings.

| What matters | If I SELL | If I HOLD | If I BUY more |
|---|---|---|---|
| If prices keep falling tomorrow, what happens to my fortune? | | | |
| If prices recover next week, what happens to my fortune? | | | |
| How will I feel about this next week, either way? | | | |
| Does this fit the pie I chose on Day 5? | yes / no | yes / no | yes / no |

### Step 4: Decide

My decision (circle one): SELL / HOLD / BUY MORE / a mix (say what): ______________________

Units, if selling or buying: ______ units of ______ at about AQ ______

One reason, with a number or a risk level (not a feeling alone):

______________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________

My trades today (fill in as you make them; if you change your mind from Step 4, write why in the last column):

| Ticker | Buy or sell | Units | Price | Same as Step 4? If not, why? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| | | | | |
| | | | | |
| | | | | |

### Step 5: Look back (fill this in tomorrow, Day 7)

My Day 6 decision was (circle one): a plan / a panic

My evidence, a number from the ledger (what I sold or held, at what price, and what it is worth now):

______________________________________________________________________

______________________________________________________________________

What I would tell a friend who is looking at the same screen right now:

______________________________________________________________________

* * *

## Two real crashes (Day 7 notes; fill in from the slides)

| | Crash 1: 2008 | Crash 2: 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| What caused it | | |
| How far the big stock index fell (about) | | |
| How long until it got back (about) | | |
| What held (the safe assets) | | |
| What happened to people who sold at the bottom and never came back | | |

* * *

## Teacher key

There is no right answer for Step 4. Score the grid on whether the reasoning is there:
- Step 3 has a number or a phrase in every box (a "got it" box: "If I sell 200 SPRK at 40.50 I keep 8,100 cash no matter what happens tomorrow").
- Step 4's reason names a number, a risk level, or the Day 5 pie, not only a feeling. "I was scared" is a feeling; "I was scared, and SPRK is 70 percent of my pie, so I sold half to get it under 40 percent" is a reason.
- The trades table matches Step 4, or the change is explained.
- Step 5 names a ledger number and labels the decision honestly.

**Two real crashes, sample answers** (rounded; [Sal: verify against a current source before presenting]):
- 2008: caused by home loans that could not be paid back and the banks that had made them failing; the S&P 500 index fell about 57 percent from October 2007 to March 2009; it took about four years (to 2013) to get back to its old high; government bonds and savings accounts held; people who sold at the bottom and never came back locked in the loss and missed the recovery.
- 2020: caused by a virus that closed most of the world in a month; the index fell about 34 percent in about five weeks (February 19 to March 23, 2020); it got back in about five months (August 2020); government bonds and savings accounts held; same lesson about selling at the bottom.